The Fermi Un-Paradox

Enrico Fermi, whose famous lunch-time theory has transcended the decades was a believer.

Yes, a believer.

According to Mori of Forgetomori, Fermi not only questioned ‘why’ we haven’t seemed to have been visited by aliens, he actually believed they existed:

According to “Dr. SETI“, H. Paul Shuch, from the official SETI League, “physicist Enrico Fermi, said to be a firm believer in the existence of extra-terrestrials, was frustrated by the lack of firm evidence of their existence”. Wait a minute, Fermi actually believed in the existence of aliens?

That may sound preposterous given that his famous Paradox is one of the most referenced arguments advanced against the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, but amazingly, it probably is true.

Fermi unfortunately passed away in 1954, shortly after he formulated his paradox. He didn’t publish the concept in written form, rather it was just an idea discussed by him with colleagues at lunch. That was then often quoted and referenced by others for decades afterwards. This probably explains why his original idea came to be so misunderstood.

It was only in 1985 that someone seems to have decided to actually document the origins of the paradox, and sadly, even this work is widely ignored. That’s the report from Los Alamos National Laboratory, “Where is Everybody?’: An Account of Fermi’s Question“, by scientist Eric M. Jones.

Jones interviewed those present at that historic lunch at Los Alamos in the summer of 1950. They were Emil Konopinski, Herbert York and Edward Teller, and he provided accounts of the conversation by all of them.

Interestingly, the paradox was related to the cartoon seen above. Konopinski wrote:

“I do have a fairly clear memory of how the discussion of extra-terrestrials got started while Enrico, Edward, Herb York, and I were walking to lunch at Fuller Lodge. When l joined the party, I found being discussed evidence about flying saucers. That immediately brought to my mind a cartoon I had recently seen in the New Yorker, explaining why public trash cans were disappearing from the streets of New York City. The New York papers were making a fuss about that. The cartoon showed what was evidently a flying saucer sitting in the background and, streaming toward it, ‘little green men’ (endowed with antennas) carrying the trash cans. More amusing was Fermi’s comment, that it was a very reasonable theory since it accounted for two separate phenomena: the reports of flying saucers as well as the disappearance of the trash cans.”

Edward Teller also recalled:

“I remember that Fermi explicitly raised the question, and I think he directed it at me, ‘Edward, what do you think? How probable is it that within the next ten years we shall have clear evidence of a material object moving faster than light?’ I remember that my answer vas ‘ 1 o-6.. Fermi said, ‘This is much too low. The probability is more like ten percent’ (the well known figure for a Fermi miracle.)

The discussion then went on to other topics, as they arrived at the luncheon table. It “had nothing to do with astronomy or with extraterrestrial beings. I think it was some down-to-earth topic. Then, in the middle of this conversation, Fermi came out with the quite unexpected question ‘Where is everybody?‘ … The result of his question was general laughter because of the strange fact that in spite of Fermi’s question coming from the clear blue, everybody around the table seemed to understand at once that he was talking about extraterrestrial life”, Teller wrote to Jones. “I do not believe that much came of this conversation, except perhaps a statement that the distances to the next location of living beings may be very great and that, indeed, as far as our galaxy is concerned, we are living somewhere in the sticks, far removed from the metropolitan area of the galactic center”, Teller added.

But York believes that Fermi was somewhat more expansive and “followed up with a series of calculations on the probability of earthlike planets, the probability of life given an earth, the probability of humans given life, the likely rise and duration of high technology, and so on. He concluded on the basis of such calculations that we ought to have been visited long ago and many times over. As I recall, he went on to conclude that the reason we hadn’t been visited might be that interstellar flight is impossible, or, if it is possible, always judged to be not worth the effort, or technological civilization doesn’t last long enough for it to happen.” York confessed to being hazy about these last remarks.

Note how York confirms that Fermi assumed extraterrestrial civilizations existed, only that their non-arrival must have meant something stops them on their way. That’s exactly the position taken by SETI scientists to this day.

Eric Jones’ report can be downloaded at the FAS website:

One could argue that UFOs are proof of alien civilizations, but most UFOs seem to exhibit characteristics more akin to paranormal activity, i.e., ghosts, hauntings, shapeshifting, etc. Definitely ‘nuts and bolts’ explanations and trace evidence is in the minority, thus robust scientific proof is hard coming.

But as Arthur C. Clarke once said, ” A sufficiently advanced technological society will appear to the less technological as magic.”

Maybe we better keep that in mind.

Fermi believed in aliens? What a paradox! (From August 2007)

hat tip


3 responses

  1. Mori got some mind read technologies from aliens that’s why he can depict in what Fermi actually believed. Technology is quite mystic and advanced that’s why he can depict it even after the 45 years of Fermi’s death. very mystic!

  2. A lot of people seem surprised to find out stuff like this — Fermi beng a believer, Hawking’s statements (wow, what an uproar that caused. I still think most people were taking the statement out of context). But I suspect that many of these people have always believed life s probable. Having been such a taboo subject in the past, I believe they probably just kicked it under the rug as far as public declarations go.

    I think there is a general interest in what makes things what they are, so the attraction to physics for some is based on that alone. However, in terms of cosmology, I can’t help but think that their first reasons for being interested in the cosmos was the prospect of the unknown in the form of whatever, and of course, life.

    Kind of like me and the Ancient Astronaut crap. I roll my eyes and throw up a little bit in my mouth every time i see a documentary or read praise on von Daniken. yet, deep down I’ve always been conflicted with the topic alone.

    Of course I don’t mean to insinuate that I’m of similar stock to such notable peoples.

  3. I’ll never get the hang of WPs notify checkbox. *sigh*

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